[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 150239
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 150239 
SDZ000-NDZ000-MTZ000-150415-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1678
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0939 PM CDT WED JUL 14 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MT/WRN ND

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 636...

VALID 150239Z - 150415Z

POTENTIAL FOR PRIMARILY DAMAGING WINDS/LARGE HAIL IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF WW AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

BIMODAL SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE IS IN PROGRESS TONIGHT FROM SERN
SASKATCHEWAN SWD INTO SWRN ND/NWRN SD. MCS EVOLVING OVER SERN
SASKATCHEWAN AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER WRN PORTIONS OF THE
PROVINCE /PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/ REMAINS COMPOSED OF SEVERAL
SUPERCELLS...THE SRN MOST OF WHICH IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER NERN
SHERIDAN COUNTY MT. MEANWHILE...AN ADDITIONAL MORE ISOLATED
SUPERCELL WAS LOCATED OVER SLOPE/BOWMAN COUNTIES IN SWRN ND.

RUC POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE WW AREA CONTINUE TO INDICATE
VERY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR THE PERSISTENCE OF THESE STORMS WITH
MLCAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG...0-6KM SHEAR VALUES OF 45-55KTS AND 0-1KM
SRH OF 100-200 M2/S2. INCREASING CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WITH ONSET OF
COOLING IN BOUNDARY-LAYER SHOULD TEND WEAKEN SRN SUPERCELL WITH
TIME. PRIOR TO THIS...AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO...VERY LARGE HAIL
AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE.

FARTHER N...HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH
COUPLED WITH EXPANDING AND DEEPENING MCS COLD POOL MAY SUPPORT A
CONTINUED SERN SYSTEM MOVEMENT INTO NWRN AND POSSIBLY N-CNTRL OR
CNTRL ND OVERNIGHT. HERE TOO...AN ISOLATED TORNADO IN ADDITION TO
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR
SO...WITH PRIMARILY A DAMAGING WIND THREAT EXPECTED THEREAFTER.

..MEAD.. 07/15/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW...

48970571 48940152 45690005 45680404 

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