[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 142210
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 142210 
VAZ000-MDZ000-NCZ000-142315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1672
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0510 PM CDT WED JUL 14 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN VA SWD INTO NERN NC

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 630...

VALID 142210Z - 142315Z

WW630 WILL EXPIRE AT 23Z AND A NEW WW WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED WITHIN
THE NEXT HOUR.

AS OF 2150Z...REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC INDICATED STRONG TO POTENTIALLY
SEVERE TSTMS /SOME OF WHICH ARE EXHIBITING MID-LEVEL ROTATION/ FROM
CAROLINE EWD INTO SOMERSET COUNTIES IN SERN VA AND FROM LOUISA
COUNTY SWD INTO HALIFAX COUNTY IN S-CNTRL VA. MEANWHILE...VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED DEEPENING CUMULUS FIELD ALONG AND N OF THE
INTERSTATE 85 CORRIDOR IN NC. THOUGH STRONGEST DYNAMIC FORCING FOR
ASCENT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN N OF THE REGION AND OVER THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC STATES THIS EVENING...AIRMASS S AND E OF ONGOING STORMS SWD
ACROSS THE NC PIEDMONT REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES OF
1500-2500 J/KG AND LITTLE OR NO CONVECTIVE INHIBITION.

PRESENCE OF MODERATELY STRONG NWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW /I.E. 40-45KTS AT
500MB/ ACROSS THIS INSTABILITY AXIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
ORGANIZED TSTMS...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS. ADDITIONALLY...
LOCALLY LOW LFC HEIGHTS AND RESULTANT 0-3KM CAPES OF 100-200 J/KG
ACROSS THIS SAME AREA SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG LOW-LEVEL
STRETCHING AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO EVEN
AS LOW-LEVEL SHEAR REMAINS RELATIVELY WEAK.

..MEAD.. 07/14/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...LWX...RAH...

38117772 37917530 35777641 35957889 

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