[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 142154
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 142153 
SDZ000-NEZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-150000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1671
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0453 PM CDT WED JUL 14 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN SD/ERN WY/WRN NEB

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 142153Z - 150000Z

ATMOSPHERE HAS BEEN GRADUALLY DESTABILIZING THIS AFTERNOON...AND
LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CUMULUS CONGESTUS FIELD OUT
NEAR THE BADLANDS. THIS MAY BE AN AREA FOR STORM INITIATION IN THE
NEXT COUPLE HOURS. STORM NOW OVER THE BLACK HILLS IS PRODUCING HAIL
AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR SUPERCELLS. SUBTLE
IMPULSE IN WV IMAGERY NOW MOVING OVER NRN WY SUGGESTS THAT THERE IS
SOME WEAK LARGE SCALE ASCENT OCCURRING. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
COMBINED WITH A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS / MLCAPE NEAR 2000 J/KG / WILL
LIKELY FAVOR CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS THROUGH THE
AFTN/EVENING. IT SEEMS INITIAL PULSE LIKE CONVECTION IS STRUGGLING
TO BECOME CONNECTED WITH THE STRONGER FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS. IF
STORMS CAN OVERCOME THIS...THEN A MORE ORGANIZED THREAT FOR SEVERE
HAIL/WIND WOULD EXIST...AND A WATCH MAY BE CONSIDERED.

..TAYLOR.. 07/14/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...LBF...UNR...CYS...BYZ...

41060511 42600595 44560561 45170400 44599984 41130153 

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