[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 141606
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141606 
PAZ000-MDZ000-141830-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1663
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1106 AM CDT WED JUL 14 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL PA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 141606Z - 141830Z

ISOLD TO WIDELY SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF
CNTRL/WRN PA OVER THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS. OVERALL ORGANIZED STORM
COVERAGE IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT BASED ON SOMEWHAT MARGINAL
SHEAR. HOWEVER...A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED OVER PARTS OF THE AREA.

NARROW WARM SECTOR WAS DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL PA WITH
LATEST MLCAPE ESTIMATED AROUND 1000 J/KG. MEANWHILE...UPPER TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WERE MAKING STEADY EWD PROGRESS ACROSS WRN
PA WITH A TRAILING WIND SHIFT/CONVERGENCE AXIS EXTENDING FROM NERN
OH INTO NWRN PA. TSTMS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING ALONG THE POST FRONTAL
WIND SHIFT LINE ACROSS NWRN PA OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS WITH
VIL/REFLECTIVITY VALUES SLOWLY INCREASING. GIVEN MOIST AIRMASS AND
MODEST INSTABILITY IN THE PRESENCE OF STRONG LARGE SCALE FORCING AND
SOMEWHAT MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 25-30KT...SITUATION APPEARS
SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW SUPERCELLS OR ORGANIZED MULTICELL STORMS. THIS
POTENTIAL SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH A FEW
HAIL AND/OR WIND REPORTS POSSIBLE. STORMS DEVELOPING EWD AND
CROSSING THE WARM FRONT MAY ENCOUNTER MORE ENHANCED LOW LEVEL SHEAR
AND ACQUIRE SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS. IF WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL BECOMES MORE CERTAIN...A WATCH WOULD BE NEEDED.

..CARBIN.. 07/14/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX...PBZ...

39757928 40187976 40508022 40918050 41557969 41787925
41907880 41977830 41847729 41407647 40507607 39887617
39747700 39717841 

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