[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 140322
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 140321 
TNZ000-VAZ000-KYZ000-NCZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-140515-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1658
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1021 PM CDT TUE JUL 13 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...SE KY...TN..NRN AL...NRN GA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 625...627...

VALID 140321Z - 140515Z

TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED.  NEW WW MAY NOT BE NEEDED SOUTH OF WW
627.  OTHERWISE...CONTINUE REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW 625 AND
627.

STRONG SURFACE COLD POOL/MESO HIGH CONTINUES TO SURGE SOUTHWARD
ACROSS MIDDLE/EASTERN TENNESSEE.  IN SLIGHTLY COOLER BOUNDARY LAYER
ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG GUST
FRONT AND ABOVE COLD POOL HAS BEGUN TO WEAKEN...AND THESE TRENDS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS SYSTEM PROGRESSES SOUTH OF LOW-LEVEL THERMAL
RIDGE AXIS INTO THE NORTHERN GULF STATES...WHERE LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE NOT AS STEEP/CAPE NOT AS STRONG.

AS CONVECTION CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...SURFACE COLD POOL WILL
EVENTUALLY FOLLOW SUITE...AND POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY
WILL DECREASE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  HOWEVER...STRONG GUSTY
WINDS ARE STILL LIKELY ALONG LEADING EDGE OF OUTFLOW ANOTHER COUPLE
OF HOURS...POSSIBLY INTO THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR BETWEEN
ATLANTA/BIRMINGHAM BY 06Z.  THREAT APPEARS MUCH LOWER IN COOLER
BOUNDARY LAYER AFFECTED BY AFTERNOON CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH OF
I-20.

..KERR.. 07/14/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...JKL...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...PAH...MEG...

36488788 35818701 35458628 35598502 36008452 36478433
36868412 37348354 36808305 36528261 35668342 34848400
34278441 33848512 33798659 34328741 35348756 36188828
36788853 

WWWW