[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 140251
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 140251 
SDZ000-NEZ000-WYZ000-140415-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1657
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0951 PM CDT TUE JUL 13 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR ERN WY/SW SD/WRN NEB

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 624...

VALID 140251Z - 140415Z

WW 624 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 03Z. ALTHOUGH ISOLD
SEVERE THREAT MAY PERSIST...PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT ADDITIONAL
WW WILL NOT BE NEEDED NE/E OF WW 624.

UPSLOPE REGIME CONTINUES TO SUPPORT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
THE WRN HIGH PLAINS OF WY INTO SW SD/NRN NEB PANHANDLE. STRONGEST
ACTIVITY REMAINS ON NRN PERIPHERY OF WW 624 EARLY THIS
EVENING...WITH MODEST E/SE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW BENEATH 30 KT MID
LEVEL WLY FLOW SUPPORTING ORGANIZED MULTICELL CLUSTERS ALONG NRN
EDGE OF INSTABILITY AXIS. 

ALTHOUGH FORWARD PROPAGATION OF TSTM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH SW SD/NEB PANHANDLE THIS EVENING OWING TO
UPSLOPE/STRONGLY SHEARED REGIME...BARRING ORGANIZED COLD POOL
DEVELOPMENT...THREAT FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS OWING TO LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

..GUYER.. 07/14/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...LBF...UNR...CYS...

42800461 44350481 44740421 44730321 44410111 42930057
41840083 42150281 42230403 

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