[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 121842
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 121841 
NJZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-PAZ000-NCZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-122045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1632
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0141 PM CDT MON JUL 12 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN PA/FAR SRN NJ...MUCH OF MD/DE...CENTRAL/ERN VA
SWD INTO CENTRAL NC

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 121841Z - 122045Z

ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP/INTENSIFY ALONG
LEE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NCENTRAL VA INTO CENTRAL NC. STRONGER MID
LEVEL FLOW WILL EXIST OVER VA/SERN PA/SRN NJ AND MD/DE...WHERE
ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE. FARTHER SOUTH...MORE PULSE
SEVERE IS ANTICIPATED WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT. THE
OVERALL ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT APPEARS MARGINAL...BUT THE AREA WILL
CONTINUED TO BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW/S.

LATEST VWP DATA SUGGESTS ABOUT 20-25 KTS OF MID LEVEL FLOW SPREADING
EWD INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
APPALACHIANS. THE STRONGEST FLOW SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL/NRN
PARTS OF THE REGION. 18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED A LEE TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM NCENTRAL VA/WRN MD SWD INTO THE PIEDMONT OF NC. A
WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM A LOW OVER SCENTRAL PA SEWD INTO NERN MD
AND CENTRAL DE AND WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE SLOWLY NWD OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO REMAIN ANCHORED ON THE
BOUNDARY AND GIVEN MODEST LOW LEVEL SHEAR /10-15 KTS OF 0-1 KM PER
DOVER VWP/ MAY SUPPORT BRIEF TORNADOES.

FURTHER SOUTHWEST...CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT
MOVES EAST AWAY FROM LEE TROUGH OVER WRN PORTIONS OF WRN VA/NC INTO
CENTRAL VA/NC. OVERALL SHEAR PROFILES WILL REMAIN MARGINAL FOR
SUPERCELLS AND LARGE HAIL...ON THE ORDER OF 25-30 KTS. HOWEVER
MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY
SUPPORT ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS.

..CROSBIE.. 07/12/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RAH...ILM...RNK...GSP...

35718126 37167969 38237878 39277808 40057743 40187641
39467508 38747518 37047633 35957776 34667912 35278129 

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