[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 121739
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 121739 
VAZ000-TNZ000-NCZ000-KYZ000-121945-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1631
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1239 PM CDT MON JUL 12 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...MIDDLE AND ERN TN...FAR SERN KY AND SWRN VA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 121739Z - 121945Z

ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH CONVECTION AS IT
CONTINUES TO ORGANIZE/DEVELOP ALONG SLOWLY SEWD MOVING OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY EXTENDING ACROSS SERN/SCENTRAL KY. IF GREATER ORGANIZATION
OF THE LINE CAN OCCUR...THEN A WW MAY BE NEEDED IN A FEW HOURS.

MID LEVEL MCV OVER SCENTRAL IND WAS SUPPORTING 35-40 KT NWLY WINDS
IN THE 2-3 KM LAYER OBSERVED IN LOUISVILLE AND EVANSVILLE VWP DATA.
DESPITE INCREASING INSTABILITY DOWNSTREAM OF THE CONVECTION WITH
MLCAPES TO AROUND 1500 J/KG AS OF 17Z...LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ON THE
ORDER OF 7 DEG C/KM REMAIN MARGINAL TO SUPPORT DAMAGING WINDS
PRESENTLY. AS FURTHER HEATING OCCURS...THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING
WINDS WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL INCREASE BY MID AFTERNOON. IF A
MORE ORGANIZED LINE CAN DEVELOP...THEN GIVEN STRENGTH OF THE LOW
LEVEL WIND FIELDS A GREATER THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS WOULD EXIST
AND A WW MAY BE REQUIRED.

..CROSBIE.. 07/12/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...HUN...

35148758 36038793 36418661 36898502 36938441 37188282
36478176 35788281 35488506 

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