[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 110341
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 110340 
MTZ000-110545-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1610
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1040 PM CDT SAT JUL 10 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MT

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 600...

VALID 110340Z - 110545Z

CONTINUE WW.  NEW WW MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS PARTS OF EXTREME EASTERN
MONTANA/WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY 06Z.

SMALL BUT INTENSE/ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE CLUSTER HAS EVOLVED DURING
THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS WEST/SOUTHWEST OF JORDAN MT.  ACTIVITY IS
NOW NORTH OF WEAK EAST-WEST SURFACE BOUNDARY...WHERE MODERATE
EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS BENEATH 30 TO 40 KT WESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW
IS CONTRIBUTING TO STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES.  AS ACTIVITY
CONTINUES EASTWARD WITH ZONE OF ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION...INTO MORE MOIST LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT ACROSS EASTERN
MONTANA WITH MID/UPPER 50S SURFACE DEW POINTS...THREAT FOR LARGE
HAIL WILL CONTINUE.  STRONG DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE ALSO QUITE
LIKELY...AND MAY REACH THE GLENDIVE AREA BY 06-07Z.

..KERR.. 07/11/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...

47260692 47530593 47430506 47360419 46960411 46710469
46630563 46660663 46720730 47010705 

WWWW