[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 110242
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 110241 
KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-110515-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1609
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0941 PM CDT SAT JUL 10 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SW NEB/NW KS

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL 

VALID 110241Z - 110515Z

RISK FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL CONTINUES...RISK OF HEAVY RAINFALL IS
INCREASING.

ONGOING SMALL CONVECTIVE CLUSTER WILL BE SLOW TO DIMINISH...AND MAY
EVEN EXPAND/INTENSIFY A BIT FURTHER THIS EVENING AS CONVERGENCE/WARM
ADVECTION INCREASE ON NOSE OF NOCTURNALLY STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY
LOW-LEVEL JET. OBSERVATIONAL/MODEL DATA SUGGEST STRONGEST FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH 30 TO 35 KT CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS JET WILL BECOME
FOCUSED NEAR THE WESTERN KANSAS/NEBRASKA BORDER.  WITH CAPE UP TO
2000 J/KG...THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES MAY SUPPORTING CONTINUING RISK
FOR LARGE HAIL.  HOWEVER...PRIMARY THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAIN TOTALS. THOUGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FOR
ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTING CONVECTION ARE NOT EXTREME...HEAVY RAIN CORES
WILL BE SLOW MOVING AND MAY BEGIN TO TRAIN ACROSS AREAS AROUND
MCCOOK BY 06Z.

..KERR.. 07/11/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TOP...GID...LBF...GLD...BOU...

40480221 40870091 39589791 39289990 39340171 39810264 

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