[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 102040
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 102039 
NDZ000-SDZ000-MTZ000-102245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1598
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0339 PM CDT SAT JUL 10 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MT...SWRN ND AND NWRN SD

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 102039Z - 102245Z

SE MT THROUGH SW ND AND NW SD ARE BEING MONITORED FOR THUNDERSTORM
INITIATION. SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND
WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS ONCE STORMS DEVELOP.

THIS AFTERNOON A SURFACE FRONT EXTENDS FROM NE ND SWWD INTO SW ND
AND SE MT. ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE S OF THIS BOUNDARY
WITH LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWING MLCAPE FROM 1500 TO 2000
J/KG. LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION CONTINUES TO INCREASE
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NE WY AND SOME CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT OVER
SERN MT AS WELL. AN INCREASE IN CUMULUS HAS ALSO BEEN OBSERVED ALONG
THE BOUNDARY ACROSS SWRN ND. SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH ND MIGHT DELAY THE ONSET OF DEEPER CONVECTION OVER
SOME OF THE AREA...BUT CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY DOES SHOW A STORM
DEVELOPING ON THE BOUNDARY OVER CNTRL W CNTRL ND. CURRENT THINKING
IS THAT ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY DEVELOP AS THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO
DESTABILIZE. SHEAR PROFILES WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS STRUCTURES AS
STORMS DEVELOP.

..DIAL.. 07/10/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW...

46440225 45130396 45190532 46240602 46980414 47150180 

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