[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 071932
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 071931 
TXZ000-072130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1563
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0231 PM CDT WED JUL 07 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...ECNTRL TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 071931Z - 072130Z

DEVELOPING TSTMS MAY POSE ISOLD/MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT THIS
AFTERNOON. A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

TSTMS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP ACROSS NCNTRL TX OWING TO REMNANT
MCV/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS THE REGION...WITH ACTIVITY LIKELY TO
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND/OR SPREAD S/SE ACROSS ECNTRL TX. 18Z RUC
POINT SOUNDINGS AND MODIFIED 12Z DFW/SHV RAOBS SUGGEST NEGLIGIBLE
CINH OVER THE REGION...WITH MLCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 2500-3500 J/KG
OWING TO UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S AND LOWER 70S TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS
RESPECTIVELY. WEAK WINDS ARE EVIDENT ACROSS THE REGION PER PALESTINE
TX PROFILER AND AREA VWPS WITH WLY WINDS 15-20 KTS OR LESS THROUGH
THE LOW TO MID TROPOSPHERE. WEAK AMBIENT SHEAR/VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS
SUGGESTS MICROBURSTS/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH ISOLD LARGE HAIL A POSSIBILITY AS WELL WITH THE
MOST VIGOROUS TSTMS.

..GUYER.. 07/07/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT...

32549790 32919665 32959510 32689450 31689450 31099525
30489644 30259752 30179820 31079861 31469872 31989848 

WWWW