[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 071815
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 071814 
MTZ000-071945-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1560
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0114 PM CDT WED JUL 07 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INTO ERN MT

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 071814Z - 071945Z

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF MT...AND SPREAD EWD.  DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL
BE THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH THIS ACTIVITY.  WW MAY BE REQUIRED BY
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. 

VIS IMAGERY SHOWS CU DEVELOPING FROM BLAINE TO FERGUS COUNTIES WHICH
IS ON THE WRN EDGE OF A LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE/DEVELOPING INSTABILITY
GRADIENT.  ADDITIONAL SURFACE HEATING THIS AFTERNOON WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING THROUGH THE 80S OVER ERN MT COMBINED WITH
SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE 50S WILL RESULT IN MARGINAL
INSTABILITY /MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 500 J/KG/.  50 KT MID-LEVEL SWLY
SPEED MAX ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG PAC NW MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
NOSE INTO WRN/CENTRAL MT THIS AFTERNOON...WITH UVVS INCREASING
WITHIN EXIT REGION/DIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT.  THIS SHOULD SUPPORT
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON.  DEEP LAYER SHEAR
WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR STORM ORGANIZATION... BUT MARGINAL
INSTABILITY MAY LIMIT SEVERE COVERAGE.

..PETERS.. 07/07/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX...

47060902 48890874 48830497 46580478 45250513 45330900 

WWWW