[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 071812
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 071812 
ALZ000-TNZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-072015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1559
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0112 PM CDT WED JUL 07 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...SE AR/NRN MS INTO WRN TN/NRN AL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 071812Z - 072015Z

TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON MAY POSE ISOLD WET MICROBURST/DAMAGING WIND
THREAT. WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

TSTMS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP FROM SE AR/NRN MS INTO WRN TN/NRN AL
AHEAD OF REMNANT CONVECTIVE COMPLEX ACROSS CNTRL AR AND SYNOPTIC
COLD FRONT. AIRMASS IN THIS REGION HAS ALREADY BECOME MODERATELY
UNSTABLE...WITH PLENTIFUL INSOLATION AND LOW/MID 70S SFC DEWPOINTS
SUPPORTING 2000-3000 J/KG MLCAPE. 12Z LZK/JAN RAOBS AND LATEST
OKOLONA MS PROFILER DATA PORTRAY RATHER WEAK AMBIENT WIND FIELDS
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH WLY LOW TO MID LEVEL WINDS OF 15-20 KT OR
LESS.

GIVEN MODERATE INSTABILITY/MINIMAL SHEAR AND LITTLE BACKGROUND
SUPPORT...TSTM MODE WILL BE PRIMARILY PULSE IN NATURE...WITH THREAT
FOR ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ISOLD NATURE OF SEVERE THREAT WILL
PRECLUDE NECESSITY FOR WW.

..GUYER.. 07/07/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...LZK...

34959154 35499051 36248868 36328777 35078712 33918755
33338857 33209002 33129115 33069158 33399182 33959204 

WWWW