[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 071521
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 071520 
MSZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-071615-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1555
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1020 AM CDT WED JUL 07 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SRN AR AND FAR NRN LA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 071520Z - 071615Z

THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INCREASING IN INTENSITY DURING
THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS SRN AR AS THE DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS
DESTABILIZES ACROSS SRN AR/FAR NRN LA INTO CENTRAL MS. WW NOT
CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR BETTER
STORM ORGANIZATION WITH ONGOING ACTIVITY ACROSS SERN OK INTO WRN AR.


REGIONAL RADARS SHOW AN MCV ALONG THE OK/AR BORDER /FROM LE FLORE
COUNTY OK TO POLK COUNTY AR/...WHICH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THUNDERSTORM
CLUSTER/MCS OVER THIS REGION.  LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOW A BOWING
STRUCTURE DEVELOPING FROM THE MCV SWWD INTO FAR NERN TX...AND MOVING
TO THE ESE AT 25-35 KT.  THIS INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS LIKELY
RELATED TO A STRENGTHENING COLD POOL WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE
IN THE MIDDLE 60S ACROSS SERN OK...COMPARED TO TEMPERATURES RISING
INTO LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S OVER SRN AR/FAR NRN LA.  MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS FROM THE MCS WILL ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL
SURFACE HEATING/SUBSEQUENT BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION...WITH
INSTABILITY AXIS EXTENDING EWD INTO MS/AL.

DESPITE WEAK DEEP LAYER WIND FIELDS...STRENGTHENING COLD POOL MAY
INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS BY 18Z...ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SRN AR/FAR NRN LA...AND THEN EWD INTO CENTRAL MS.

..PETERS.. 07/07/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...

34309363 34219182 33989017 32669036 32689200 32909366 

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