[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 070104
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 070103 
MIZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-070200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1551
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0803 PM CDT TUE JUL 06 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN LOWER MI...NWRN OH...IND...ERN IL

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 580...582...

VALID 070103Z - 070200Z

...DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR THE MAIN THREAT WITH ONGOING TSTM
ACTIVITY...

00Z SOUNDINGS FROM THE OH VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION DEPICT
MODEST DEEP LAYER WLY FLOW AHEAD OF UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE OVER THE MS
VALLEY.  CONVECTION THAT HAS DEVELOPED FROM ERN IL INTO LOWER MI HAS
STRUGGLED TO INTENSIFY...POSSIBLY DUE TO MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILES...LAPSE RATES ON THE ORDER OF 6-6.5 AND SBCAPE ROUGHLY
1000J/KG.  VERTICAL SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT STORM
ORGANIZATION BUT OVERALL TRENDS SUGGEST ONLY ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS
WITH DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY THE MAIN THREAT.

..DARROW.. 07/07/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DTX...IWX...GRR...IND...LOT...ILX...

39818840 41068742 42368647 43278332 42698253 39828658