[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 070103
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 070102 
TXZ000-NMZ000-070230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1550
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0802 PM CDT TUE JUL 06 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NM/WRN TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 581...

VALID 070102Z - 070230Z

SEMI-ORGANIZED MULTICELL CLUSTERS WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE SEWD
ACROSS THE PLAINS OF ERN NM INTO PORTIONS OF WRN TX WITH ATTENDANT
SEVERE THREAT...CONTINUE VALID PORTION OF WW 581 /SEE LATEST WW
STATUS/. AREA ACROSS WRN TX SOUTH OF WW 581 WILL BE MONITORED FOR AN
ADDITIONAL WW ISSUANCE.

CAPPING INVERSION EVIDENT IN 00Z AMA SOUNDING IS EXPECTED TO INHIBIT
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE NRN TX PANHANDLE...STABILIZED IN
POST-FRONTAL/OUTFLOW AIRMASS. FURTHER SOUTH...AIRMASS REMAINS VERY
UNSTABLE ACROSS SE NM INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS OF TX/TRANSPECOS REGION.
TSTM CLUSTERS WILL LIKELY SPREAD SEWD INTO THIS REGION...SUPPORTED
BY INSTABILITY AXIS AND DEVELOPING SLY 30 KT LOW LEVEL JET. AT LEAST
AN ISOLD SEVERE THREAT WILL REMAIN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS OWING
TO DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND MARGINAL SHEAR.

..GUYER.. 07/07/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...

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