[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 062032
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 062031 
OKZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-062300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1546
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0331 PM CDT TUE JUL 06 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SE CO/ERN NM/TX PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 062031Z - 062300Z

TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP/PROPAGATE SEWD ACROSS FAR SE CO/NE NM
REMAINDER OF AFTERNOON. WE WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS FOR
TSTM INITIATION ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN
EITHER OR BOTH SCENARIOS...SEVERE THREAT WILL EXIST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED SOON.

20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS/LATEST VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS REMNANT
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLY MORNING CONVECTION ACROSS THE SRN TX
PANHANDLE INTO N TX...ROUGHLY FROM CVS-LBB VICINITIES TO NORTH OF
DFW METROPLEX. IN ADDITION...CU FIELD ALSO EVIDENT ASSOCIATED WITH
WEAK COLD FRONT FROM THE NRN TX PANHANDLE INTO CNTRL OK.

AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS RELATIVELY HIGHEST PROBABILITY SCENARIO
WILL BE TSTMS ORGANIZING INTO ONE OR MORE COMPLEXES ACROSS FAR SE
CO/ERN NM AND PROPAGATING INTO WRN TX /AND POSSIBLY PORTIONS OF WRN
OK/ LATER THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER
CONVERGENCE/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ALONG AFOREMENTIONED SFC BOUNDARIES
MAY ALSO BE ENOUGH TO INITIATE ISOLD TSTMS ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

W/NW MID LEVEL WINDS ABOVE BACKED E/SE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AND DEEP
LAYER SHEAR OF 30-35 KTS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. OVERALL MAIN SEVERE HAZARD LIKELY TO BE
LARGE HAIL OWING TO MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY /2000-3000 J/KG MLCAPE/
AND STEEP MID LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 8.0 C/KG. THREAT FOR AN ISOLD
TORNADO MAY EXIST AS WELL...NAMELY IN VICINITY OF REMNANT
BOUNDARIES.

..GUYER.. 07/06/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...MAF...PUB...ABQ...

37330501 37650400 37160275 35740133 34919954 33709965
33459991 32960083 32910145 33060346 34310462 35200495
35910512 

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