[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 060445
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 060444 
INZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-060615-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1537
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1144 PM CDT MON JUL 05 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MO/SRN IL/SWRN IN

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 571...

VALID 060444Z - 060615Z

COMPLICATED MCS ACROSS SRN IL CONTINUES TO POSE MAINLY A DAMAGING
WIND AND HAIL THREAT. LEADING EDGE OF STORMS EXTENDS FROM
RSV/AJG/HSB AND SURGING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS APPARENT FROM LATEST
RADAR IMAGES. MAIN CONCERN IS FOR BACKBUILDING NEXT FEW
HOURS...WHICH WILL PROLONG THE SEVERE THREAT AND HEAVY RAIN ACROSS
ERN MO/ST LOUIS AREA. STRONG 500MB DIFFLUENCE MAY BE CONTRIBUTING TO
INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT...WHICH WOULD SUGGEST SYSTEM WILL BE
ABLE TO MAINTAIN ITSELF INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. LATEST
PROFILER/VAD WIND DATA SHOW MAINLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY DEEP LAYER
SHEAR OF AROUND 35-45 KT. IT SEEMS FORWARD PROPAGATION COMPONENT
COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE WLY FLOW ALOFT MAY ALLOW SYSTEM TO SPREAD
INTO SRN IN.

..TAYLOR.. 07/06/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...

37898829 37979115 39189154 39548976 39568748 39158688
37938736 

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