[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 052121
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 052121 
ARZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-052315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1525
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0421 PM CDT MON JUL 05 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN OK...SRN KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 052121Z - 052315Z

SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR LIKELY AND A
WW WILL BE REQUIRED.

EXTREME INSTABILITY IN PLACE OVER SRN KS / NRN OK. CIN IS ALMOST
GONE OVER CENTRAL OK AS TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN INTO THE 90S.  SOME
CIN REMAINS OVER SRN KS WHERE IT IS COOLER...BUT SLY LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION MAY ERASE CAP BY LATER AFTERNOON / EARLY EVENING. MODIFIED
18Z LMN SOUNDING INDICATES ABOUT 4000 J/KG MLCAPE WITH LI ON THE
ORDER OF - 12. AREA VWPS AND PROFILERS INDICATE SUFFICIENT SHEAR
FOR SUPERCELLS WITH 30-40 KT MID LEVEL FLOW...WHICH IS BACKING IN
ADVANCE OF WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
  
VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES SEVERAL AREAS OF POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT
FROM N CENTRAL OK INTO SRN KS...WITHIN BROAD LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION ZONE.  ETA AND RUC MODELS BOTH INDICATE DEVELOPMENT WILL
TAKE PLACE OVER NRN OK BUT DEVELOPMENT APPEARS POSSIBLE ANYWHERE
WITHIN DISCUSSION AREA.

..JEWELL.. 07/05/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC...

35979459 35829812 36219999 38039999 38049465 

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