[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 042022
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 042021 
OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-042145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1503
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0321 PM CDT SUN JUL 04 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TX PANHANDLE...NWRN OK...SWRN AND CENTRAL KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 042021Z - 042145Z

A WW WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.  MAIN SEVERE THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS.

CONVERGENCE ALONG DRYLINE ALONG WITH SURFACE HEATING NOW BREAKING
CAP OVER TX PANHANDLE WITH TCU ON VISIBLE IMAGERY WITH ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT LIKELY AS UPPER VORT MAX APPROACHES.  CONVERGENT AXIS
EXTENDS NWD INTO SWRN KS WHERE STRONG INSTABILITY EXISTS WITH MLCAPE
2000-3000 K/KG.  AREA PROFILERS SHOW ENOUGH SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS
WITH 20-30 KTS OF WLY FLOW ABOVE 2 KM AGL. LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS WEAK
AND THEREFORE TORNADO THREAT APPEARS QUITE ISOLATED. ALTHOUGH LOW
LEVEL SHEAR WILL INCREASE LATER THIS EVENING AS LOW LEVEL JET
STRENGTHENS...DOMINANT CONVECTIVE MODE WILL LIKELY EVOLVE INTO EWD
MOVING MCS.

..JEWELL.. 07/04/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...GLD...AMA...

38770025 38809852 36779855 35339975 34770082 35140150
36090125 37000097 38210061 

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