[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 042004
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 042004 
KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-042200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1502
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0304 PM CDT SUN JUL 04 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN IL...SRN IND...N CNTRL KY...SW OH

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 550...

VALID 042004Z - 042200Z

CONTINUE WW.  POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS APPEARS LIKELY TO
INCREASE NEXT FEW HOURS.

GROWING CLUSTER OF INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS IS ONGOING ACROSS SOUTHEAST
ILLINOIS...WEST/NORTH OF EVANSVILLE.  SOURCE REGION FOR PARCELS
COMPRISING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE VERY MOIST/POTENTIALLY
UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSOURI/SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER 80S AND DEW POINTS IN
THE LOWER/MID 70S.

WHILE BASE OF UPDRAFTS ARE LIKELY STILL ELEVATED ABOVE BOUNDARY
LAYER IN ZONE OF STRONGER ISENTROPIC ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH CYCLONIC
MID-LEVEL JET STREAK...EVOLUTION OF SUBSTANTIAL SURFACE COLD POOL/
MESO HIGH APPEARS LIKELY DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS NEAR/NORTH OF
EVANSVILLE.  CONVERGENCE ALONG DEVELOPING OUTFLOW SPREADING TOWARD
THE OHIO RIVER SHOULD THEN MAINTAIN VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
IN ENVIRONMENT WITH MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG.

GIVEN PRESENCE OF MODERATE 30 TO 40 KT WESTERLY MID-LEVEL JET... AND
RELATIVELY WEAK HIGH-LEVEL FLOW...PROFILES APPEAR SUPPORTIVE OF
FORWARD PROPAGATING CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WITH POTENTIAL FOR SWATH OF
DAMAGING WINDS.  ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE OHIO
RIVER...FROM LOUISVILLE INTO THE CINCINNATI AREA...BY THE
04/23-05/00Z TIME FRAME.

..KERR.. 07/04/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...

38318890 38818848 38958776 39138714 39378657 39328586
38938497 38378499 37758555 37418603 37348753 37598808 

WWWW