[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 041826
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 041825 
ARZ000-OKZ000-042030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1498
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0125 PM CDT SUN JUL 04 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK...NWRN AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 041825Z - 042030Z

A FEW SEVERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH LARGE
HAIL POSSIBLE.

SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM NWRN AR INTO NERN OK. 
THIS BOUNDARY IS WASHING OUT QUICKLY AS TEMPERATURES HAVE JUMPED
5-10 DEGREES F OVER THE LAST HOUR.

CAP STRENGTH IS OF GREATEST CONCERN AND IS CURRENTLY SUPPRESSING
DEVELOPMENT ALONG BOUNDARY.  HOWEVER...WITH CONTINUED
HEATING...ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR WITHIN THIS LOW LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION ZONE.  CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED AND IF IT BECOMES APPARENT STORMS ARE BEGINNING TO TAKE
ADVANTAGE OF STRONG INSTABILITY...A WW COULD BE REQUIRED.

..JEWELL.. 07/04/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...TSA...

35319316 34799340 34909468 35289588 35669653 36659632
36889567 36479461 36099321 

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