[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 041625
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 041624 
KYZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-041900-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1497
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1124 AM CDT SUN JUL 04 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...S CNTRL IL...SRN IND/SW OH...N CNTRL KY

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 041624Z - 041900Z

CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBILITY OF INCREASING
SEVERE THREAT. WW COULD BECOME NECESSARY LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS OCCURRING NORTH OF THE ST. LOUIS
AREA...AND APPEARS TO BE IN RESPONSE TO FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL
MOTION/DESTABILIZATION IN EXIT REGION OF CYCLONIC 45 KT 500 MB JET
STREAK PROPAGATING THROUGH THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY.  THIS FEATURE
IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE EAST SOUTHEASTWARD INTO BASE OF BROAD UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...WITH LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE ON
SOUTHERN FRINGE OF WESTERLIES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS/SOUTHERN
INDIANA LIKELY TO BECOME FOCUS FOR EXPANDING CLUSTER OF CONVECTION
THIS AFTERNOON.

MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITH DEW POINTS AROUND 70F THROUGH THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY IS DESTABILIZING WITH DAYTIME HEATING...AND AS LOW-LEVEL
INHIBITION WEAKENS...ONGOING ACTIVITY SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY
ROOTED IN THIS LAYER.  SHEAR PROFILES/FLOW FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH JET
STREAK ARE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT EVOLUTION OF ORGANIZED
CONVECTIVE CLUSTER...AND UNSATURATED LOW/MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WILL
ENHANCE EVAPORATIVE COOLING NEAR HEAVY PRECIPITATION.  THIS IS
EXPECTED TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS ACROSS SOUTHERN ILLINOIS/INDIANA BY THE 20-21Z TIME
FRAME...POSSIBLY APPROACHING THE CINCINNATI/LOUISVILLE AREAS BEFORE
05/00Z.

..KERR.. 07/04/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...

39028970 39408840 39158718 39658477 38688448 37368653
37218858 38069008 

WWWW