[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 290723
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 290723 
CAZ000-290930-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2587
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0123 AM CST WED DEC 29 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN CA COAST

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 290723Z - 290930Z

...ISOLATED SUPERCELLS MAY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OFF THE SRN CA
COAST...

FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LAPSE RATES HAVE STEEPENED CONSIDERABLY
BELOW 600MB ALONG THE SRN CA COAST OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. 
THIS IS SUPPORTED WITH RECENT INCREASE IN CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY
OVER MARITIME BOUNDARY LAYER.  DESPITE MARGINAL INSTABILITY...IT
APPEARS INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT/STEEPENING LAPSE RATES WILL
PROVE MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR NEAR SFC-BASED CONVECTION AHEAD OF
UPPER TROUGH.  LATEST THINKING IS ISOLATED SUPERCELLS MAY GENERATE
LOCALLY STRONG WINDS...OR PERHAPS SOME SMALL HAIL OR BRIEF TORNADO. 
OTHERWISE...ADDITIONAL UPSTREAM CONVECTION MAY EVOLVE INTO A LOOSELY
ORGANIZED LINE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MARGINALLY SEVERE WINDS AS IT
APPROACHES THE COAST.

..DARROW.. 12/29/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SGX...LOX...

34031850 34271786 33501710 32681688 32371757 32481796
33211821 

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