[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 281847
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 281847 
CAZ000-282015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2586
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1247 PM CST TUE DEC 28 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...COASTAL SRN CA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 281847Z - 282015Z

A FEW STRONGER CELLS -- POSSIBLY LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLS -- NOW
OFFSHORE S OF SBA WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL AND
AFFECT PARTS OF COASTAL SRN CA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. 
LIMITED SEVERE THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE.

LATEST RADAR SHOWS SEVERAL STRONGER CELLS APPROACHING SRN CA --
ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER VORT MAX CENTER. ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL WIND
FIELD HAS VEERED / SHEAR WEAKENED...AND ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY REMAINS
MINIMAL AT BEST...SOMEWHAT MORE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS OFFSHORE
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SEMI-ORGANIZED CONVECTION / THUNDERSTORMS.

STORMS JUST S OF THE CHANNEL ISLANDS HAVE SHOWN PERSISTENT LIGHTNING
AND POSSIBLY SOME WEAK ROTATION PER LATEST VELOCITY DATA FROM AREA
RADARS.  THOUGH SEVERE THREAT WILL REMAIN LIMITED...GUSTY WINDS OR A
WATERSPOUT / BRIEF TORNADO WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE CHANNEL ISLANDS
-- AND PERHAPS ALONG IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS OF SRN SAN LUIS OBISPO
/ SANTA BARBARA / VENTURA COUNTIES IN THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS.

..GOSS.. 12/28/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LOX...MTR...

35622117 35832061 34902016 34271838 34071851 33872011
34082080 34502109 

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