[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 311954
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 311951 
NMZ000-TXZ000-AZZ000-312145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2153
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0251 PM CDT TUE AUG 31 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN AZ AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/SRN NM

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 311951Z - 312145Z

THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MTNS OF ECENTRAL AZ...CENTRAL/WCENTRAL NM AND
OVER THE SACRAMENTO MTNS OF SCENTRAL NM WILL CONTINUE TO ORGANIZE
AND AS THEY MOVE INTO LOWER ELEVATIONS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
POSING A THREAT FOR ISOLATED SVR.

THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD ORGANIZE INTO E-W ORIENTED LINES AS THEY MOVE
SWD OFF HIGHER ELEVATIONS UNDER 20 KT NLY MID LEVEL FLOW EVIDENT ON
REGIONAL PROFILER/VWP DATA. MODIFIED 18Z RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE
MLCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED
WITH MID LEVEL COLD POCKET OF -11 TO -12 DEG C AT 500 MB. THESE
THERMODYNAMICS ABOVE A DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL SUPPORT
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND SVR HAIL OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS.
DESPITE SUFFICIENT MID LEVEL FLOW FOR LINEAR ORGANIZED
CLUSTERS...THE OVERALL MARGINAL INSTABILITY SHOULD PRECLUDE A
GREATER SVR THREAT. THUS A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

..CROSBIE.. 08/31/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...TWC...FGZ...PSR...

31380970 33021098 34491032 34710738 33860502 32060449 

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