[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 302242
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 302240 
VAZ000-NCZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-310045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2152
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0540 PM CDT MON AUG 30 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF SERN VA...PORTIONS SERN MD

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 797...

VALID 302240Z - 310045Z

REMNANTS OF TC GASTON -- CENTERED OVER SURREY COUNTY VA AS OF 22Z --
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NEWD ACROSS TIDEWATER REGION THROUGH REMAINDER
TONIGHT.  REMAINDER OF WW NNW THROUGH ESE OF CIRCULATION CENTER --
COMPRISING SECTOR WITH MOST FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR -- SHOULD BE
MAINTAINED UNTIL SCHEDULED EXPIRATION. MARGINAL TORNADO POTENTIAL
WILL REMAIN THROUGH REMAINDER OF TONIGHT AND SPREAD NEWD ACROSS
PORTIONS SERN MD.  HOWEVER...THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH SUCH
THAT WW CAN BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE WITHOUT ADDITIONAL ISSUANCE.

SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS TROUGH EXTENDING GENERALLY EWD FROM LOW
ACROSS SRN TIP DELMARVA PENINSULA.  AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NWD ACROSS
ERN CHESAPEAKE BAY REGION...AHEAD OF LOW CENTER...THIS FEATURE WILL
CONTINUE LOSING BAROCLINICITY BECAUSE OF
1. ABUNDANT PRECIP ON BOTH SIDES AND
2. LOSS OF SFC DIABATIC/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING.
PRESSURE FALL AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM LOW NEWD ACROSS ACCOMACK COUNTY
VA AND AS SUCH DENOTES MOST PROBABLE TRACK OF LOW DURING NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS.

VERTICAL SHEAR REMAINS FAVORABLE OVER A SMALL SECTOR OF NERN
QUADRANT OF CIRCULATION OF GASTON.  0-1 KM SRH 100-200 J/KG IS
ESTIMATED N OF SFC TROUGH...BASED ON MODIFIED MODEL SOUNDINGS AND
NEWD SHIFT OF VWP TRENDS FROM AKQ.  MAIN AREA OF INTEREST REMAINS
ALONG AND N OF SFC TROUGH/WIND SHIFT LINE AND INVOF PRESSURE FALL
AXIS...PARTICULARLY IF ANY DISCRETE STORMS/MINI-SUPERCELLS
MOVE THROUGH THAT CORRIDOR.  AREA BETWEEN TROUGH AND ISALLOBARIC
AXIS SHOULD SERVE AS MAX OF ANY REMAINING TORNADO PROBABILITIES. 
MAIN NEGATIVE FACTOR IS WEAKENING SFC-BASED INSTABILITY AND
RESULTANT DECREASE COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF DISCRETE CONVECTION ACROSS
FAVORABLY SHEARED SECTOR OF CYCLONE.

..EDWARDS.. 08/30/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RNK...PHI...

36367558 36757846 38237848 37807562 

38057721 38277676 38457569 38477506 38187507 37877537
37687558 37807564 

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