[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 291946
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 291944 
MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-292145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2144
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0244 PM CDT SUN AUG 29 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN DAKOTAS/WRN MN

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 291944Z - 292145Z

TSTMS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY FROM THE FAR ERN
DAKOTAS INTO WRN MN REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING
WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST TSTMS. TRENDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

AIRMASS ACROSS THE ERN DAKOTAS/FAR WRN MN CONTINUES TO RECOVER IN
WAKE OF MORNING CONVECTION. VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS CU FIELD
CONTINUING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE ERN DAKOTAS INVOF SFC WIND
SHIFT/WEAK COLD FRONT...AS FORCING FOR UPWARD MOTION OVERSPREADS
ASSOCIATED WITH SRN MANITOBA/ND SHORTWAVE TROUGH. 

19Z OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS DEPICTS SUGGESTS MINIMAL CINH IN PLACE WITH
MLCAPE OF 750-1000 J/KG IN AXIS ALONG/EAST OF DVL-JMS-ABR CORRIDOR.
AIDED BY MODERATE W/NW WINDS...DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 35-40 KTS WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS. COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT /-16C
TO -18C/ AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF LARGE
HAIL...WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ALSO POSSIBLE. TRENDS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE MONITORED.

..GUYER.. 08/29/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS...

48919925 48969825 48859584 48159513 45969489 44499496
43829584 43789799 43819883 45319891 47079887