[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 291948
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 291946 
MEZ000-NHZ000-MAZ000-VTZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-292145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2145
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0246 PM CDT SUN AUG 29 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...NY...VT...NH...WRN MA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 795...

VALID 291946Z - 292145Z

NUMEROUS STRONG AND A FEW SEVERE TSTMS ACTIVE ACROSS NORTHERN AND
WESTERN SECTIONS OF WATCH 795 AT THIS TIME. A COUPLE LONGER-LIVED
SUPERCELLS HAVE BEEN NOTED SINCE WATCH ISSUANCE...ONE CELL CROSSED
THE WARM FRONT ACROSS SERN NH...THE OTHER ISOLD CELL DEVELOPED OVER
ONEIDA COUNTY NY AND WAS NOW WEAKENING ACROSS HAMILTON COUNTY.
BROKEN BAND OF INTENSE CONVECTION CONTINUES IN A SW-NE AXIS JUST
AHEAD OF THE STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS WRN/NRN NY. ADDITIONAL INTENSE
CELLS...OCCASIONALLY EXHIBITING SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS...WERE
NOTED NEAR THE SURFACE LOW AND WARM FRONT ACROSS EXTREME NERN NY AND
NWRN VT. AIRMASS TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF THIS ACTIVITY REMAINS VERY
UNSTABLE BUT LARGE SCALE FORCING INTO THE CORE OF WARM SECTOR WILL
REMAIN RATHER WEAK. EXPECT A FEW MORE WIND/HAIL EVENTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE INTO EARLY EVENING ACROSS NERN/ERN NY AND VT BEFORE OVERALL
WEAKENING TREND SETS IN.

LACK OF FORCING ACROSS SRN AND ERN PORTIONS OF THE WATCH...FROM SRN
TIER OF NY ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY TO WRN MA...SUGGEST SEVERE
STORM POTENTIAL IN THESE AREAS WILL REMAIN LIMITED.

..CARBIN.. 08/29/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...

42027878 44627771 44587053 41977216 

WWWW