[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 291913
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 291911 
KSZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-292115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2143
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0211 PM CDT SUN AUG 29 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...SW KS/NE NM AND OK/TX PANHANDLES

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 291911Z - 292115Z

ISOLD TSTMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SRH HIGH PLAINS
THROUGH MID/LATE AFTERNOON...WITH CONDITIONAL LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING
WIND HAZARDS. TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE
WW.

LATEST VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS PERSISTENT CU FIELD WITHIN
CONFLUENT REGION AHEAD OF LEE TROUGH FROM FAR ECNTRL NM THROUGH THE
OK/TX PANHANDLES INTO WRN KS. MODIFIED 12Z AMA/RUC SOUNDINGS DEPICT
NEGLIGIBLE CINH IN THIS CORRIDOR...WITH A MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS /1500-2000 J/KG/ ALREADY IN PLACE.

GIVEN S/SW BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW BENEATH MID LEVEL NWLY WINDS OF 25-30
KTS...SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR WOULD EXIST FOR ORGANIZED
STORMS...INCLUDING POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS. MODERATE
INSTABILITY/FAVORABLE SHEAR AND STEEP LAPSE RATES OF 7.0 C/KM OR
GREATER SUGGEST LARGE HAIL THREAT...WITH DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE AS
WELL.

COMBINATION OF NEUTRAL/SLIGHTLY RISING UPPER HEIGHTS AND
NON-DESCRIPT BACKGROUND FORCING FOR ASCENT SUGGEST DEVELOPMENT MAY
REMAIN ISOLD. TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

..GUYER.. 08/29/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...LUB...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

34910411 35520401 36980223 38430125 38710051 38189976
36380017 34290101 33870131 33910294 34410384 

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