[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 240213
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 240211 
MOZ000-KSZ000-240345-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2093
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0911 PM CDT MON AUG 23 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN KS...EXTREME SERN NEB AND PARTS OF EXTREME WRN
MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 777...

VALID 240211Z - 240345Z

THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ANOTHER 2-3 HOURS...MAINLY WITH
TRAINING LINE OF SUPERCELLS ACROSS NERN KS. IN ADDITION TO THE
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...VERY HEAVY RAIN WITH RATES IN EXCESS OF 1.5
INCHES PER HOUR WILL LIKELY CONTINUE IN THIS AREA...GRADUALLY
SHIFTING SLOWLY SWD WITH TIME.

THIS EVENING AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY PERSISTS FROM SWRN MO NWWD THROUGH
NERN KS AND INTO SERN NEB. THE MOST CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE PART OF THIS
BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER NERN KS...WHERE STRONG LIFT ON
NOSE OF INTENSIFYING SWLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE FOCUSED. LOW LEVEL
HELICITY AND SHEAR IS ENHANCED N OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHERE SELY
LOW LEVEL FLOW EXISTS. HOWEVER...LATEST RADAR DATA SHOW THE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY HAS BEEN REINFORCED BY THE ONGOING STORMS AND IS SHIFTING
SLOWLY SWD. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME INCREASINGLY ELEVATED N OF
THIS BOUNDARY WITH TIME. HOWEVER... THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES
SHOULD PERSIST NEXT 2-3 HOURS WITH STORMS DEVELOPING CLOSE TO THE
SURFACE BASED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.
STORMS WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO TRAIN ESEWD ALONG AND N OF THE BOUNDARY
WHICH WILL SUPPORT VERY HEAVY RAINFALL NEXT FEW HOURS.

..DIAL.. 08/24/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...

37959442 37839578 38409672 39089727 39499721 39029489 

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