[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 240117
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 240115 
NDZ000-240245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2092
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0815 PM CDT MON AUG 23 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CNTRL AND ERN ND

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 775...

VALID 240115Z - 240245Z

WW 775 WILL LIKELY BE REPLACED BY ANOTHER WW FARTHER EAST FOR PARTS
OF E CNTRL THROUGH ERN ND.

THIS EVENING A WARM FROM EXTENDS ACROSS SRN ND NWWD AND BECOMES AN
OCCLUDED BOUNDARY ACROSS NWRN ND. A DRYLINE EXTENDS FROM W CNTRL SD
NWD INTO S CNTRL ND WHERE IT INTERSECTS THE WARM FRONT. S OF THE
WARM FRONT AND E OF THE DRYLINE...THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS QUITE
UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE FROM 2000 TO 2500 J/KG. HOWEVER...STRONGEST
FORCING FOR DEEP LAYER ASCENT ACCOMPANYING A NEGATIVELY TILTED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED STRONG LOW LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED
TO LIFT NEWD INTO THE COOLER REGIME N OF THE WARM FRONT. THIS
SUGGESTS STORMS MAY BECOME INCREASINGLY ELEVATED...WITH THE SEVERE
THREAT GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING TO MOSTLY LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT FARTHER SWD
ALONG DRYLINE AND IN WARM SECTOR APPEARS SOMEWHAT LIMITED GIVEN
INCREASING CAP AND STRONGEST FORCING LIFTING NWD WITH TIME.

..DIAL.. 08/24/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...

46089993 47480082 48570065 48789947 47199815 46089851 

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