[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 202004
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 202003 
PAZ000-MDZ000-DCZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-202230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2060
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0303 PM CDT FRI AUG 20 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/ERN WV...WRN/NRN VA...WRN/NRN
MD...EXTREME SRN PA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 202003Z - 202230Z

SCATTERED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE NEWD ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA
THROUGH AT LEAST 23Z WITH RISK OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.

AIR MASS ACROSS THIS REGION HAS BECOME QUITE BUOYANT AMIDST STRONG
HEATING AND UPPER 60S/LOW 70S F SFC DEW POINTS.  RUC FCST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE MLCAPES COMMONLY IN 2000-3000 J/KG RANGE.  SEVERE POTENTIAL
DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE AS ORGANIZED AS FARTHER N ACROSS WWS 765/766
BECAUSE OF RELATIVELY WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR.  HOWEVER...WEAKER AND
MORE SLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW IS COMPENSATING SOMEWHAT FOR WEAKER
MIDLEVEL WINDS TO KEEP SHEAR AT LEAST MARGINAL FOR SEVERE.  SMALL
CLUSTERS OF TSTMS ALSO MAY DEVELOP COLD POOLS WITH LOCAL
ENHANCEMENTS OF CONVECTION POSSIBLE ALONG RESULTANT BOUNDARY
INTERACTIONS.

..EDWARDS.. 08/20/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...

40097876 40477587 39817617 39147653 38387731 37787878
37828066 38048098 38648129 39228119 39817971