[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 202003
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 202002 
TXZ000-202230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2059
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0302 PM CDT FRI AUG 20 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 202002Z - 202230Z

ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS
CENTRAL TX. WW MAY BE REQUIRED NEXT 1-3 HOURS.

AT 1930Z...REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY
FROM MAF TO 10N JCT TO 15N AUS TO 35 W LFK. IT APPEARS THAT A MESO
LOW EXISTS ALONG THE WEST END OF THE OUTFLOW CENTERED OVER SERN
MIDLAND COUNTY. VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES SOME INCREASE IN CU FIELD
ALONG CONVERGENCE ZONE...IN VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS /MLCAPE 2500-3000
J/KG/. CIN HAS ALSO WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY...ESPECIALLY EAST OF SJT
WHERE IT IS NEAR ZERO.

THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...BOUNDARY
LAYER CONVERGENCE MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG THE BOUNDARY. ABSENCE OF FORCING ALOFT SHOULD LIMIT STORM
COVERAGE AND LEAVES SOME DOUBT AS TO TIMING OF INITIATION...THOUGH
18Z RUC AND 12Z ETA SUGGEST CENTRAL TX DEVELOPMENT BETWEEN 21-00Z. 
LARGE CAPE AND MARGINAL DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL CONTRIBUTE TO LARGE
HAIL/ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL WITH STRONGER CELLS. ENHANCED
SRH ALONG THE BOUNDARY MAY ALSO ALLOW FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT
THROUGH THIS EVENING. CONVECTIVE CLOUD TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR
POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

..BANACOS.. 08/20/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT...MAF...

31760195 31620120 31560034 31419944 31199871 31039780
31259678 31469575 31379512 30959520 30369552 30139600
29989657 29759740 29729811 29929927 30079974 30560076
31020144