[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 191944
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 191942 
TXZ000-192215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2048
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0242 PM CDT THU AUG 19 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL 

VALID 191942Z - 192215Z

TSTMS MAY BECOME SEVERE THROUGH AT LEAST 23Z OVER NRN HILL COUNTRY 
AND EWD ACROSS ACT AREA.  ISOLATED STRONG-SEVERE GUSTS AND HAIL ARE
POSSIBLE.  MARGINAL TORNADO POTENTIAL ALSO EVIDENT GIVEN POSSIBILITY
OF LOCALIZED BOUNDARY/STORM-SCALE INTERACTIONS.

RESIDUAL MCS CONTINUES TO MOVE EWD ACROSS EXTREME NERN TX AND NERN
TX /SWRN AR.  SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY PRODUCED BY
THAT COMPLEX EXTENDING SWWD TO AROUND 20 SE CRS...THEN WWD ACROSS
NRN MCLENNAN COUNTY TO COKE COUNTY.  AIR MASS N OF THIS BOUNDARY
WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY STABLE FOR SEVERAL HOURS OVER NERN TX BECAUSE
OF RELATIVELY DEEP/FRESH COLD POOL GENERATION BY MCS...HOWEVER
INSOLATION WILL DESTABILIZE AIR MASS ON BOTH SIDES OF BOUNDARY W OF
I-45 AND AWAY FROM CONVECTION. BOUNDARY HAS DRIFTED N PAST ACT AND
SHOULD SHIFT TO NEAR A CRS...BWD...20 N SJT LINE BY 21Z. 
SEPARATE/WEAKER OUTFLOW BOUNDARY -- GENERATED BY INCREASING
CONVECTION OVER SE TX -- SHOULD EXTEND FROM AROUND FREESTONE COUNTY
SSEWD ALONG I-45...INTERSECTING FIRST BOUNDARY SSE OF CRS AND
PROVIDING EFFECTIVE ERN BOUND FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL.

PRESSURE FALLS REMAIN MAXIMIZED INVOF ACT AND ASSOCIATED
BACKING/STRENGTHENING OF FLOW SHOULD HELP TO MAINTAIN FAVORABLE
BOUNDARY LAYER HODOGRAPHS.  VWP AND RUC FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST 0-3
KM SRH WILL REACH 150-300 J/KG AND 0-1 KM SRH UP TO NEAR 100-250
J/KG DURING REMAINDER AFTERNOON -- MAXIMIZED IN BWD-ACT CORRIDOR.
THIS ALSO WILL CORRESPOND TO NRN EDGE OF MOST FAVORABLE BUOYANCY. 
NARROW ZONE IS EVIDENT ALONG AND JUST N OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WITH 0-6
KM AGL SHEARS 30-35 KT...35-45 J/KG BRN SHEAR...MLCAPE AROUND 1500
J/KG...AND CINH AOB 25 J/KG.  GIVEN VERY RICH LOW-MIDLEVEL MOISTURE
OVER REGION...EFFICIENT PRECIP PRODUCTION IS EXPECTED AS
WELL....WITH RAIN RATES 2-3 INCHES/HOUR IN MOST INTENSE CORES.

..EDWARDS.. 08/19/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...SJT...

32009925 32219793 32259670 32029621 31719605 31459619
31479716 31619949 31750004 

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