[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 191912
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 191911 
MEZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-MAZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-PAZ000-192045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2047
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0211 PM CDT THU AUG 19 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ERN NY/WRN MA/VT/WRN-NRN NH/WRN ME

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 191911Z - 192045Z

ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FROM ERN
NY AND ACROSS WRN MA/VT TO WRN-NRN NH/WRN ME.

REGIONAL RADARS SHOW A BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG
AND IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT...WHICH AT 19Z EXTENDED FROM SRN
QUEBEC SWWD ACROSS WRN NY TO NWRN PA.  VIS IMAGERY SHOWED A FEW
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TO THE EAST OF THE CURRENT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
ALLOWING FOR SOME SURFACE HEATING.  HOWEVER...WEAK LAPSE RATES ARE
LIMITING THE AVAILABLE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE VALUES AOB 500 J/KG.

30-35 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR PER AREA VADS WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED
STORMS...BUT MARGINAL INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE OVERALL
SEVERE THREAT/COVERAGE.

..PETERS.. 08/19/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BOX...BTV...ALY...BGM...

45957023 45117143 44987266 43757412 43067512 42217619
41697474 41757358 43677158 45876932 

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