[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 191742
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 191741 
PAZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-191845-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2045
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1241 PM CDT THU AUG 19 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL-SRN OH/SWRN PA/NRN WV PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 191741Z - 191845Z

THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT 1-2
HOURS. WW MAY BE NEEDED BY 18-19Z.

17Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED THE PRIMARY SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY EXTENDED
FROM NWRN PA SWWD ACROSS NRN OH TO CENTRAL IND/IL...WHILE A
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY EXTENDED GENERALLY E-W FROM SWRN PA TO
CENTRAL OH.  THE LATTER BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE FOCUS FOR
STRONGER STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...WHERE VIS IMAGERY ALREADY INDICATED
CU FIELD DEVELOPING DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS AS CAP HAS WEAKENED.

ADDITIONAL SURFACE HEATING WITHIN MOIST AIR MASS WILL SUSTAIN
MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPE 1500-2000 J/KG/.  STRONG WLY WINDS /40+
KT AOA 1.5-2 KM/ WILL SUPPORT SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR
ORGANIZED STORMS...WITH EMBEDDED LINE SEGMENTS.  STEEP 0-3 KM LAPSE
RATES AND THE STRONG WLY WINDS WILL FAVOR DAMAGING WINDS AS THE
PRIMARY THREAT.  WEAKER INSTABILITY LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL PA SHOULD
LIMIT THE EWD EXTENT OF THE SEVERE POTENTIAL.

..PETERS.. 08/19/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CTP...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...

40098476 40348386 40638179 40808051 40687894 39467949
39348185 39258430 39388477 

WWWW