[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 172205
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 172204 
MOZ000-KSZ000-180000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2028
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0504 PM CDT TUE AUG 17 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...W CNTRL MO...CNTRL KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 172204Z - 180000Z

A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY
EVENING...BUT A WW IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...PRIMARILY DUE TO
LIMITED DURATION OF SEVERE THREAT.

PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH/LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
THE ILLINOIS/IOWA BORDER AREA THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI INTO
AREAS JUST SOUTH OF KANSAS CITY MO/SALINA KS.  MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER
AND STEEP LAPSE RATES VICINITY OF THIS TROUGH HAVE BEEN FOCUS FOR
INTENSE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT PAST COUPLE OF HOURS FROM NORTHERN
ILLINOIS INTO NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI.  MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS
TO BE ALONG/NORTH OF ANTICYCLONIC HIGH-LEVEL JET AXIS ACROSS THE
MISSOURI VALLEY...BUT NEWER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS EVIDENT SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 70...ACROSS CENTRAL/EAST CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS IS
OCCURRING DESPITE AT LEAST WEAK/INHIBITIVE MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE.

GIVEN FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WITH MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE
TO 3000 J/KG...ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL/DOWNBURSTS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH 18/00-01Z.  HOWEVER...BEYOND THIS TIME
FRAME...LACK OF MID-LEVEL FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION/ONSET
OF SURFACE COOLING AND ASSOCIATED INCREASE IN INHIBITION/WEAK
VERTICAL SHEAR ALL SHOULD RESULT IN RAPID DIMINISHING TRENDS IN
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

..KERR.. 08/17/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...

38839810 38969703 39039577 39159486 39299405 39189340
38639302 38309387 38119490 37899634 37989758 38439850 

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