[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 172100
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 172059 
MIZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-172200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2027
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0359 PM CDT TUE AUG 17 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN MO/FAR SERN IA/PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/NRN
IL...AND INTO NRN IND/SWRN LOWER MI

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 756...

VALID 172059Z - 172200Z

PARAMETERS REMAIN FAVORABLE IN WW 756 FOR SEVERE STORMS PRODUCING
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.  THIS THREAT MAY DEVELOP/SPREAD EWD WHICH
MAY REQUIRE A NEW WW OVER PORTIONS OF NRN IND INTO SWRN LOWER MI BY
22-23Z.

ADDITIONAL SURFACE HEATING AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM
WITHIN WW 756 INTO NWRN IND HAS RESULTED IN AN AXIS OF MODERATE
INSTABILITY /MLCAPE 1500-2500 J/KG/ ALONG AND EAST OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH.  WEAKER INSTABILITY EXISTS OVER SWRN LOWER MI WITH MLCAPE
VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG.  INCREASING NWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW AND
MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT MULTICELLS AND ISOLATED
SUPERCELLS.  

SWRN LOWER MI AND NRN IND WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A NEW
WW...WITH THE PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY BEING THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY.

..PETERS.. 08/17/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRR...IND...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...

40759231 42538765 42738452 41838445 40728593 40288774
38479230 

WWWW