[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 150053
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 150052 
TXZ000-OKZ000-NMZ000-150245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2006
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0752 PM CDT SAT AUG 14 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN NM...WRN TX PANHANDLE AND OK PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL 

VALID 150052Z - 150245Z

ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND AFFECT THE AREA
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING...AS INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET AND WARM
ADVECTION OFFSETS BEGINNINGS OF DIURNAL COOLING FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. CONVECTION MOVING OUT OF NERN NM AND REDEVELOPMENT NORTH OF A
WEAK BOUNDARY SHOULD AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MOSTLY NON SEVERE
MCS OVER THE TX/OK PANHANDLES LATER THIS EVENING WITH HEAVY RAIN
BECOMING THE PRIMARY THREAT.

MODERATE NWLY FLOW OVER THE REGION WITH 20 KTS SAMPLED BY AMA VWP
ALONG WITH INCREASING 20-25 KT 850 MB SELY WINDS WILL SUPPORT A 
SUPERCELL OVER THE FAR WRN TX PANHANDLE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS
STORM AND OTHERS NEARBY SHOULD CONGEAL WITH CONVECTION DRIVEN BY
MODERATE OUTFLOW OVER NERN NM. HAIL AND BRIEF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH THESE STORMS.

..CROSBIE.. 08/15/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...ABQ...

34450359 35060463 35720426 36810315 36770154 36180089
34370215 

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