[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 142017
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 142016 
NVZ000-CAZ000-142245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2003
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0316 PM CDT SAT AUG 14 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN CA AND FAR SRN NV

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL 

VALID 142016Z - 142245Z

VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH TRAINING STORMS IS EXPECTED ALONG THE CHAIN
OF THE COASTAL MTNS FROM NERN LOS ANGELES COUNTY INTO ERN SAN DIEGO
COUNTY. RAINFALL RATES FROM 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR ARE LIKELY.
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL IS ANTICIPATED ALONG THE ERN/SRN SIDES OF
OTHER MTNS IN THE MOJAVE DESERT REGION OF SERN CA AND FAR SRN NV.

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER VORT CENTER
LOCATED OVER FAR SRN NV TO THE SOUTH OF LAS VEGAS. MODEST NELY MID
LEVEL FLOW AND BACKED ELY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL SUPPORT A VERY STRONG
UPSLOPE PATTERN INTO THE ERN SLOPES OF THE MTNS OF SRN CA. VERY
MOIST AIRMASS WITH DEWPTS IN THE MID 60S UP TO 3000 FT...PW VALUES
FROM 1.5 TO 1.8 INCHES PER REGIONAL 18Z SOUNDINGS ALONG WITH
MODERATE INSTABILITY AND SLOW SWD STORM MOTIONS...WILL AID IN STRONG
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND TRAINING OF HEAVY RAINFALL INTO THESE
MTNS. CONVECTION SHOULD BE MAINTAINED ALONG THE ERN SLOPES OF THE
MTNS IN SRN CA AND THE SRN SLOPES OF MTNS IN FAR SRN NV AND FAR ERN
SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON DUE TO THE
STATIONARY NATURE OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL FORCING.

..CROSBIE.. 08/14/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PSR...VEF...SGX...LOX...

32551638 33881691 34301803 34581800 34831752 36471567
36491472 33961489 33501622 32551601 

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