[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 141855
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141854 
OKZ000-COZ000-NEZ000-NMZ000-WYZ000-142100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2002
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0154 PM CDT SAT AUG 14 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...NEB PANHANDLE SWD INTO NERN NM

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 141854Z - 142100Z

ISOLATED SVR HAIL IS EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE SANGRE DE
CRISTO MTNS OF SERN CO/NCENTRAL AND NERN NM WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2
HOURS. AT LEAST STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
FURTHER NE OVER ERN CO/FAR WRN NEB PANHANDLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

18Z SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES THE PRESENCE OF A LOW CENTERED JUST SE OF
DEN AND ANOTHER LOW TO THE SOUTH OF LA JUNTA. A LEE TROUGH CONNECTED
THESE LOWS. THIS TROUGH EXTENDED FROM THE FAR WRN NEB PANHANDLE SWD
INTO THE FRONT RANGE OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MTNS IN NCENTRAL NM. A
FEW MORE HOURS OF HEATING SHOULD AID IN REMOVAL OF THE REMAINING
CINH OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS AND DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION IN AREAS OF
ENHANCED CONVERGENCE NEAR THE AFOREMENTIONED LEE TROUGH/LOW
CENTERS...AS WELL AS PROPAGATION OF CONVECTION OFF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF SCENTRAL CO/NCENTRAL NM. STRONGEST MID LEVEL NWLY WINDS
WILL REMAIN OVER ERN CO/WRN NEB...WHERE 20-25 KTS CONTINUES TO BE
SAMPLED BY AREA PROFILERS.  BACKED 10 KT SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL
MAINTAIN SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR AT LEAST THE POTENTIAL FOR WEAKLY
ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS OVER ERN CO/NEB PANHANDLE AND FAR NERN NM.
FARTHER SOUTH OVER MOST OF ERN NM...MID LEVEL WINDS GRADUALLY WEAKEN
DECREASING THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO 25-30 KTS. 

LACK OF STEEPER LAPSE RATES IN THE MID LEVELS AS EVIDENT BY
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION CENTERED AROUND 500 MB FROM REGIONAL 12Z
SOUNDINGS SHOULD LIMIT THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT AND THUS MAY
PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A WW. ALTHOUGH THE MAIN SVR THREAT SHOULD BE
LARGE HAIL. AN ISOLATED LANDSPOUT IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY
OF THE SFC LOW CENTERS.

..CROSBIE.. 08/14/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...CYS...ABQ...

35890502 37380549 39790478 41610416 41600329 40340229
39130208 36200328 

WWWW