[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 140658
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 140658 
TXZ000-NMZ000-140900-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1999
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0158 AM CDT SAT AUG 14 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...TX PANHANDLE...FAR NE NM

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 140658Z - 140900Z

AN ISOLATED HAIL POTENTIAL WILL OCCUR WITH NEW STORMS AS THEY
DEVELOP AND MOVE SWD ACROSS THE WRN TX PANHANDLE AND NE NM OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS.

NEW STORMS ARE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING IN A REGION OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE FAR NWRN TX PANHANDLE AND FAR NERN NM. MUCAPE
VALUES ARE AROUND 1000 J/KG AND THIS COMBINED WITH A 850 MB JET OF
ABOUT 30 KT WILL SUSTAIN THE STORMS AS THEY TRACK SWD INTO THE
LOW-LEVEL JET LATE TONIGHT. IN ADDITION...A MID-LEVEL JET IS
PUNCHING SSEWD INTO THE TX PANHANDLE WHICH HAS INCREASED DEEP LAYER
SHEAR VALUES TO ABOUT 40 KT. ALTHOUGH THE INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL
FOR SUPERCELLS...THE AMOUNT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR MAY BE ENOUGH FOR
ELEVATED SUPERCELL-LIKE STRUCTURES ESPECIALLY AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET
STRENGTHENS LATE TONIGHT. 500 MB TEMPS AROUND -11 C AND THE STRONG
SHEAR MAY RESULT IN MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS.

..BROYLES.. 08/14/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...ABQ...

35930373 36210341 36340265 36180201 35610160 34930153
34540228 34570333 35250364 

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