[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 122202
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 122201 
AZZ000-130030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1979
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0501 PM CDT THU AUG 12 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SCNTRL AZ

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 122201Z - 130030Z

ISOLD SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE REMAINDER OF AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING...WITH ISOLD LARGE HAIL IN HIGHER TERRAIN...AND DAMAGING
WINDS POSSIBLE INTO LOWER DESERTS. A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

ONGOING TSTMS INVOF MOGOLLON RIM/HIGHER TERRAIN MAY ORGANIZE
SUFFICIENT COLD POOL OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...ALLOWING TSTM
CLUSTERS TO PROPAGATE SWWD INTO THE LOWER DESERTS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. STEERING FLOW IS SUPPORTIVE OF SUCH A
SCENARIO PER 18Z PHOENIX/TUCSON RAOBS PORTRAYAL OF 15-20 KTS OF ELY
MID LEVEL FLOW. WITH MODERATELY UNSTABLE DOWNSTREAM AIRMASS...DEEPLY
MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER PROFILES /40-45F DELTA SFC T-TD/ WITH DOWNDRAFT
CAPE OF 1200-1400 J/KG SUGGEST DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE INTO
THE LOWER DESERTS.

EXPECTED ISOLD NATURE OF THREAT WILL PRECLUDE WW ISSUANCE.

..GUYER.. 08/12/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...VEF...

35461356 35341210 34681094 33871040 32751066 32571165
32931265 33731377 35331405 

WWWW