[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 112300
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 112300 
MEZ000-NHZ000-MAZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-CTZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-120030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1965
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0600 PM CDT WED AUG 11 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NY/FAR ERN PA/CT/WRN NH/NRN AND CNTRL NJ/VT

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 738...

VALID 112300Z - 120030Z

CONTINUE REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW 738 UNTIL 00Z. ALTHOUGH ISOLD
SEVERE THREAT MAY CONTINUE FOR AN HOUR OR TWO PAST 00Z
EXPIRATION...ADDITIONAL WW ISSUANCE APPEARS UNLIKELY.

ASSOCIATED WITH GREAT LAKES TROUGH...LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL
DIAGNOSTICS PORTRAY INCREASING MID/UPPER LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT
ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS SUGGESTS RENEWED AND/OR
INCREASED CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS POSSIBLE OVER NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS
ERN PORTIONS OF NY/PA INTO VT/NH IN WAKE OF EARLIER TSTMS. 

AIRMASS DOES REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE /1000-1500 J/KG SBCAPE/
AHEAD OF SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT...WITH STRONG DIRECTIONAL/SPEED SHEAR
EVIDENT IN REGIONAL VAD DATA. THUS POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST ISOLD
SEVERE TSTMS REMAINS ACROSS VALID PORTIONS OF WW 738.
OTHERWISE...CONVECTIVE CLUSTER ACROSS NRN/CNTRL NJ WILL CONTINUE TO
POSE A SHORT TERM SEVERE THREAT.

..GUYER.. 08/11/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX...

39717714 41137576 41977489 42597440 44337501 44947453
44957044 39667410 

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