[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 100214
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 100214 
MIZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-100315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1938
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0914 PM CDT MON AUG 09 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...LOWER MI...NRN IND...AND NWRN OH

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 726...

VALID 100214Z - 100315Z

WW 726 CONTINUES IN EFFECT ACROSS PORTIONS OF LOWER MI FOR THREAT OF
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION. ISOLATED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE DURING NEXT 1-2 HOURS SOUTH
OF WW AREA ACROSS NRN IND INTO FAR NWRN OH.

AT 0155Z...SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTIVE STORMS EXTEND FROM
N-CENTRAL LOWER MI SWD INTO NRN IND ON DOWNWIND SIDE OF SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER WI. MOST INTENSE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE WATCH AREA WAS A
SUPERCELL ACROSS SERN GRATIOT COUNTY IN CENTRAL LOWER MI AND
ADDITION LONG-LIVED CELL MOVING ACROSS CALHOUN COUNTY IN SRN LOWER
MI. STRONG DIFFERENTIAL VORTICITY ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION WILL
MAINTAIN CONVECTIVE STORMS MOVING GENERALLY EWD AT 25KTS.
HOWEVER...BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING WILL REDUCE CAPE DURING NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS...LIKELY RESULTING IN A SLOW WEAKENING TREND OF
STORMS. OBSERVED 00Z MUCAPE AT DTX WAS AROUND 700 J/KG...BUT WITH
SUFFICIENT SFC-6KM SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS. CELLS MAY MAINTAIN
SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS FOR NEXT 1-2 HOURS BEFORE LESSENING
INSTABILITY REDUCES UPDRAFT INTENSITY LATER TONIGHT.

FURTHER SOUTH...CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDS FROM MI/IND BORDER
SWWD TO 40NW LAF...MOVING EWD AROUND 25 KT. ISOLATED SEVERE
HAIL/WIND IS POSSIBLE WITH STRONG CORES NEXT 1-2 HOURS AS STORMS
CONTINUE ACROSS NRN IND INTO FAR NWRN OH. ADDITIONAL WATCH IS NOT
CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED ACROSS FAR ERN LOWER MI OR ACROSS NRN IND/NWRN
OH.

..BANACOS.. 08/10/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR...LOT...

40828748 42108667 45698568 45708297 42118413 40838494 

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