[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 062341
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 062341 
SDZ000-NDZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-070145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1906
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0641 PM CDT FRI AUG 06 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...N CENTRAL NEBRASKA...CENTRAL SD...SERN ND

CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS 

VALID 062341Z - 070145Z

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOW-END SEVERE HAIL AND/OR WIND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...FROM SERN ND INTO NERN
CO...BEFORE MOVING INTO STABLE AIR.  OVERALL THREAT IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN RELATIVELY UNORGANIZED ON THE LARGE SCALE...THUS A WW IS NOT
EXPECTED.

ELEVATED STORMS CONTINUE WITHIN LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME INTO
SERN ND.  MVX AND ABR VWPS SHOW WIND PROFILES FAVORABLE FOR
SUPERCELLS...AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE
ELEVATED STORMS.  FARTHER S INTO SD...SURFACE BASED STORMS CONTINUE
TO BE RELATIVELY UNORGANIZED...WITH ONLY SMALL LINE SEGMENTS.  THESE
STORMS ARE MOST LIKELY TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND AND LOW END SEVERE
HAIL GIVEN LOW RH SUB CLOUD LAYER AND INCREASING OUTFLOW. 
HOWEVER...BRIEF TORNADOES HAVE BEEN REPORTED WITH INITIAL
DEVELOPMENT BUT THESE ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE LONG LIVED.

STORMS FARTHER SWWD INTO WRN NEB AND NERN CO WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE
SOUTH CENTRAL SD STORMS...WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AS STORMS
FORM INTO LINE SEGMENTS WITH STRONG OUTFLOW.

..JEWELL.. 08/06/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS...LBF...UNR...GLD...BOU...CYS...

43120284 44350143 45630034 47659884 47849704 47299689
45939684 44179784 43099878 42449996 40590175 39280293
39520511 41620406 42630339 

WWWW