[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 052207
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 052207 
MSZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-060000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1897
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0507 PM CDT THU AUG 05 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR E TX...CNTRL LA...SRN MS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 052207Z - 060000Z

CONVECTIVE LINE FROM ERN TX TO SRN MS WILL HAVE AN ISOLATED WIND
DAMAGE THREAT FOR AN HOUR OR TWO. A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM.

SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING WEST TO EAST CURRENTLY
MOVING SWD THROUGH CNTRL LA. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS FAIRLY
WEAK...MLCAPE VALUES RANGE FROM 3000 TO 3500 J/KG. THIS WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR STRONG UPDRAFTS. SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 70S F AND
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7.5 TO 8.0 C/KM WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR
STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS. INSTABILITY WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND THE SEVERE THREAT
SHOULD RAPIDLY DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING.

..BROYLES.. 08/05/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...HGX...

32029462 31859306 31938954 30828911 30699294 31179498 

WWWW