[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 052040
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 052040 
NEZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-052245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1894
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0340 PM CDT THU AUG 05 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SERN WY...NERN CO...AND THE NEB PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 052040Z - 052245Z

ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN THE FAR SERN WY/NEB
PANHANDLE/NERN CO REGION DURING THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING. 

AT 2025Z...A SHORT LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING 270/15KT NEAR THE
SERN WY/NEB PANHANDLE BORDER. STORMS APPEARED TO HAVE DEVELOPED
ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT SURGED SWD ACROSS ERN WY DURING THE
PAST FEW HOURS.

AIR MASS IN ADVANCE OF THIS CONVECTION IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH
100MB MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1500 J/KG. SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S AND SSELY FLOW AROUND 15 KT WILL PROVIDE
MOIST/UNSTABLE INFLOW TO ONGOING STORMS. RELATIVE MINIMUM IN FIELD
OF ABSOLUTE CIN SHOULD ALLOW STORMS TO MOVE EWD ACROSS THE SRN NEB
PANHANDLE AND PERHAPS FAR NERN CO DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
ADDITIONAL T-STORM DEVELOP IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NRN NEB PANHANDLE
NEXT 1-2 HOURS.

MEDICINE BOW AND MERRIMAN PROFILERS INDICATE STRONG UPPER-LEVEL FLOW
AROUND 70KT. ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS NOT PARTICULARLY
STRONG...DEEP LAYER FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW LONG-LIVED STORMS WITH
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS INTO THIS
EVENING.

..BANACOS.. 08/05/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS...

41190468 41550433 42280388 42920366 42990254 42960166
42080187 41020206 40550215 40430230 40320251 40130281
40110342 40180381 40450437 40790465 

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